WHY RAILA STEALS THE LIMELIGHT

By Jossi Tinga

Probably, I was too quick to write an obituary for Raila Odinga. The old warhorse has done a good job of staying afloat in the murky waters that is Kenyan politics. At sea, outgunned and outnumbered it seemed it was only moments before he sank. 

There were moments in the aftermath of the March 2013 polls when he seemed lost. A belligerent look crossed his face whenever he talked of the elections. He was alone in this thing. All the other candidates rolled their mats and shipped to oblivion- I could say. Martha Karua, Peter Kenneth and the reluctant bride Musalia Mudavadi happily surrendered to political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi’s ‘Tyranny of Numbers’.  

I believe I was not alone in wondering which way the Official Opposition would go. There are no ready heirs waiting in the flanks. Raila Odinga has so worked himself into the fabric of Kenyan politics it will be years before we write him off. As he lumbered looking for direction, his Jubilee rivals unwittingly threw him a lifeline. For a newly elected government Jubilee has surprisingly behaved like a continuation of the Kibaki Administration. That has given Raila more mileage.

Raila Odinga's ODM supporters dance in the streets before the March 2013 elections

For months the Uhuru Kenyatta government even stuck with the  Kibaki choice for Government Spokesman. Add the prominent presence of Francis Kimemia, former Head of Public Service and everything seems to be business-as-usual. Mr Kenyatta did not tinker around with the much-maligned Provincial Administration. He stuck with the Kibaki choices taking eons to recall the Provincial Commissioners long after the Constitution declared them obsolete.

That the Provincial Administration itself is supposed to be restructured to conform to the new Constitution seems to have escaped the Jubilee Government’s attention. The Inspector General of Police David Kimaiyo did not help matters when he pushed for a return to one-man control of the Police Service. The Jubilee Government quickly obliged. 

In the midst of all this, President Uhuru Kenyatta has found time to meet with retired President Moi no less than three times in the last five months. The photo-op of the two at State House Nairobi ostensibly after discussing regional security issues must have sent chills in many. Moi, the independence party Kanu stalwart, is accredited with running the country on reverse gear for much of the twenty-five years in power.

Indeed the Government’s run-in with the teachers was reminiscent of Moi’s epic battles with KNUT- the National Union of Teachers. That the teachers went home unhappy is not exactly something the Jubilee Government should cheer about. Moi lived to rue his arm-twisting battles with the three hundred thousand strong Union.  

Instead of launching into the new dispensation with vigour and aplomb the Jubilee Government appeared to stall and prevaricate. Devolution, which was promised as key to the equitable development of all parts of the country, appears to stir fear in the Jubilee Government. There were anxious moments when the government appeared to ignore the recently inaugurated Senate in passing the budget with only the National Assembly’s stamp of approval. The matter is now in court.

 Enter Raila Odinga II. The man simply seized the opportunities offered by the gaps and prevarication in fulfilling constitutional requirements. With that he has bought himself a new lease of life. He is now the Chaperon of Devolution, The Patron Saint of Constitutional Implementation, The Hand that Stays Kenya Off The Return of Kanu and The Father of Reform. With the alleged return of settlers and loggers into the Mau Forest, he may soon be declared Untiring Honorary Conservator of the Mau Forest – Kenya’s most important water source.

Jubilee Senators and Governors have been boxed in by their own governing alliance. They have little choice but to back the clamour for a referendum call to increase budgetary allocations to counties. They are probably aware the electorate puts a premium on the success of the devolved units of government. Suddenly they find themselves in agreement with their arch-rival Raila Odinga. The man has gone back to hogging the limelight and to setting the national agenda. 

Of course there have been reversals among the Jubilee Senators after Deputy President William Ruto pledged to raise allocation to the desired 40 percent of national budget. Whether or not the matter goes to referendum, Raila will have scored points. Incidentally, the success of the devolved units will itself rub off some glitter on the old warhorse. He fought gallantly for devolution.

The best way to beat Raila is not to rail at him as former Government Spokesman Muthui Kariuki did. Rather it is best to steal his agenda. In this case, it is not his party manifesto but the Constitution. The constitution is Raila Odinga’s last straw. Implemented in letter and spirit he will have nothing to clutch on the way to 2017. The old warhorse must be crossing his fingers that the Jubilee Government falters on constitutional implementation.